期债长期强势可期

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来源:期货日报

正值年中时点,期债的运行逻辑在发生微妙的变化。市场对中美贸易磋商拉锯式的谈判开始审美疲劳,对相应事件的反应周期逐渐缩短。期债的主逻辑重心回到国内经济基本面。市场对经济走势的预期经历了半年的争议之后,逐渐达成一致,经济压力依然存在,复苏时点延迟到四季度。期债的经济基本面支撑至少在三季度是确定存在的。但是由于货币政策和财政政策大概率保持现状,资金面进一步宽松的空间极小,期债的压力也近在眼前。

回顾上半年,宏观经济预期在复苏与偏弱之间切换,股市振荡,货币政策相对宽裕,期债经历了半年的振荡走势,大体4月之前偏弱,之后上行为主,逐渐逼近上半年高点。截至6月28日,10年期国债主力合约下跌0.195,跌幅0.2%。5年期国债主力合约下跌0.001,跌幅0.01%。2年期国债主力合约下跌0.125,跌幅0.12%。

下半年,中美关系依然将是资本市场最重要的投资逻辑之一,阶段性的摩擦缓和都会加剧债市的波动。如果中美贸易问题达成终止性协议,或者矛盾激化,还可能影响期债的长期趋势。

XX然而,经过一年多的磨合,市场变得更加清晰。中美贸易摩擦将是长期问题。 “做和不做”的例行程序已经反复验证,并且有一个完整的“握手”或完整“剑与傲慢”的概率非常小。因此,锯式谈判的周期和阶段关系的微妙变化将逐渐缩短债务的影响期,市场吸收此类紧急情况的时间也将变得更快。在G20会议之前,市场预计中国和美国将达成贸易协议,而市场仅在8个交易日内出现小幅下跌。从6月28日开始,债务在看跌后转为上涨市场,这证明中美正常贸易谈判对债券市场的影响正在变得越来越短暂。如果这一判断成立,债务将回归国内基本面和资金逻辑。

在中美贸易磋商的影响周期缩短后,国内宏观经济成为影响下半年债务趋势的最重要因素。

从现有数据分析来看,第二季度的经济增长率低于第一季度。我们判断高概率仍然在6.4%左右,最高概率为6.3%。第三和第四季度的经济增长率很难超过6.4%,而且更有可能是平缓的。增长率约为6.1%至6.3%,预计第四季度将略高于第三季度。

基于上述判断,债券市场的基本面支撑在下半年仍然强劲,至少在第三季度。第四季度的改善不是很强劲。下半年利率下降趋势相对确定,10年期政府债券利率可能下降至3%左右并略有波动。如果数据在第四季度回暖,预计债券市场利率将小幅上升。

The current fiscal and monetary policies are showing new features. The fiscal policy emphasizes the combination of support and innovative methods. On the one hand, it promotes the smooth issuance of local bonds, guarantees the amount of capital for infrastructure projects, and on the other hand, innovative policy measures to improve the role of social funds on the basis of existing quotas. In the field of monetary policy, the central bank is actively pursuing liquidity and is increasingly focusing on coordination with fiscal policy. The innovation of policy means has replaced the stimulation of a single amount of funds to a certain extent.

In the next step, we believe that the two policies have a high probability of maintaining the status quo, because the risk of accelerated economic downturn is not large, unless there is a significant decline in large-scale macro data, there will be no further fiscal or monetary policy. In general, as long as consumption remains at around 8.5%, industrial added value remains at around 5.4%, and investment is stable at around 6%, it is unlikely that new policies will be introduced. If large-scale economic data weakens, traditional fiscal policy and monetary policy will leave room for it. The structural interest rate cuts for small and medium-sized banks may be one of the preferred means, and the possibility of policy innovation is also very large.

In addition, the overall market short-term capital interest rate is difficult to further decline. In June, the short-term capital interest rate has dropped to a low in recent years. After July, further downside space is extremely limited, and the possibility of marginal tightening increases. The bond market sentiment may be affected by this, and it also limits the space for future debt.

Overall, the trend of strong debts in the second half of the year is relatively certain, but the pressure is also close at hand. It is expected that the 10-year government bond interest rate is expected to fall to around 3%. On the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to do more dips, and the fourth quarter should pay attention to the directional impact of economic stabilization. Cross-species arbitrage strategy can focus on doing more than 50 spread arbitrage in the process of raising the interest rate of funds. In terms of inter-temporal arbitrage, there is still a certain upside potential for the short-term and second-quarter contract spreads. In the middle and late August, the mainstay will change the opportunity to pay attention to the inter-temporal arbitrage opportunities brought by the price difference.

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